Smoking prevalence in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

Area of Science:

• Public Health
• Epidemiology
• Global Health Policy

Background:

• World Health Organization (WHO) global reports track tobacco smoking prevalence trends from 2000 to 2025.
• Data is derived from national surveys, providing insights into smoking behaviors.

Purpose of the Study:

• To compare regional and country-level tobacco smoking projections across WHO trend reports.
• To analyze these projections within the context of enhanced monitoring and tobacco control policies.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of projected percentage point increases in current tobacco smoking between 2000 and 2025 from WHO trend reports.
• Inclusion of data on national surveys and tobacco control policy implementation from relevant WHO reports.

Main Results:

• The 2019 WHO report projects a decrease of less than 2 percentage points in male tobacco smoking prevalence by 2025.
• Seven of eight countries appearing in both 2015 and 2019 reports showed improved male smoking projections in the 2019 report.
• Improved monitoring and tobacco control policies were noted in five of these seven countries.

Conclusions:

• Implementing additional national surveys is crucial for accurate prevalence estimates and policy motivation.
• Addressing under-reporting biases in surveys is essential for reliable data.
• Governments should leverage trend projections to guide effective tobacco control policies and reduce regional tobacco use.