Early identification of future medical students using initial undergraduate grades

This study assessed whether overall academic performance in undergraduate medical coursework can be predicted with reasonable accuracy by using grades from initial college-level courses rather than total premedical grade point averages (GPAs). Initial college grades from four areas, MCAT scores, and NBME I and II scores were recorded for students admitted to the University of Washington Medical School, for students admitted to other medical schools, and for students not admitted to any medical school. The results documented a high relationship between cumulative GPAs and initial grades, with differences found between those students admitted to medical school and those not admitted. The importance of this study is the documentation that little predictive utility is gained by waiting for overall college GPAs from medical school applicants. Initial GPAs are available 2 years earlier than overall GPAs and provide virtually the same information. Exploratory suggestions for medical school admission policies are made.