Mapping long-term coral reef ecosystems regime shifts: A small island developing state case study

Area of Science:

• Marine Ecology
• Ecosystem Dynamics
• Climate Change Impacts

Background:

• Coral reefs are fragile ecosystems providing essential services to Small Island Developing States (SIDS).
• Understanding coral reef regime shifts requires accounting for multiple climatic and socio-economic pressures and uncertainties.
• Effective management, resilience enhancement, and habitat restoration are critical for coral reef health.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore characteristics and interactions shaping coral reef regime shifts.
• To apply a methodology capable of handling complex, multi-pressure systems with uncertainties.
• To analyze coral reef dynamics over a long-time perspective using a case study in Vanuatu.

Main Methods:

• Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) was employed in a participatory, stepwise procedure.
• Dynamic causal models were conceptualized to represent temporal changes and fluctuations.
• Twenty-seven principal influential factors and their causal relationships were identified for Port Resolution, Vanuatu.

Main Results:

• Climate change factors significantly influence coral reef ecosystem regime shifts globally.
• The tourism industry and coral fisheries are identified as the most vulnerable services at the local scale.
• Four plausible scenarios representing climatic and non-climatic trajectories were analyzed.

Conclusions:

• Climate change is a pivotal driver of coral reef regime shifts worldwide.
• Local management interventions coupled with global climate change mitigation are essential for improving coral reef ecosystem services.
• Enhanced resilience and restoration efforts are necessary for the long-term survival of coral reefs and SIDS communities.