Drivers of future urban flood risk

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Urban Planning
• Climate Science

Background:

• Urban flood risk management is a critical global challenge.
• Previous assessments of UK flood risk drivers were conducted in 2002-2004 and 2008.
• The Flood Foresight project projected flood risks for the 2050s and 2080s under various scenarios.

Purpose of the Study:

• To qualitatively reassess and update the drivers of future UK urban flood risk.
• To incorporate empirical evidence and advances in flood risk science, technology, and practice since 2008.
• To identify strengthened, weakened, and new drivers impacting urban flood risk.

Main Methods:

• Qualitative reassessment of previously identified flood risk drivers.
• Integration of empirical evidence and recent advancements in flood risk science.
• Analysis of climate change and socio-economic development scenarios.

Main Results:

• Rainfall, influenced by climate change, is the primary source driver.
• Intra-urban asset deterioration is the main pathway driver.
• Social impacts and capital investment in buildings have strengthened as receptor drivers.
• Two new drivers proposed: loss of floodable urban spaces and indirect economic impacts.

Conclusions:

• Climate change and urban development significantly alter flood risk drivers.
• Existing drivers have evolved, with some strengthening and others weakening.
• New drivers, including the loss of floodable spaces and indirect economic effects, require consideration for future urban flood risk management and resilience.