Usable Science for Managing the Risks of Sea-Level Rise

Area of Science:

• Climate change science
• Environmental science
• Social science

Background:

• Sea-level rise presents complex challenges due to long lags, irreversible impacts, and deep uncertainty.
• Adaptation measures for sea-level rise involve infrastructure and land-use decisions with multigenerational consequences.
• Sea-level science must address uncertainties in climate projections, ice sheet dynamics, and human emissions.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore the multifaceted implications of sea-level rise for natural and human systems.
• To identify key scientific uncertainties and their relevance to adaptation decision-making.
• To bridge the gap between usable climate science and its actual application in adaptation strategies.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of deep uncertainty in climate system projections, including human emissions and ice sheet dynamics.
• Investigation of the interplay between slow sea-level trends and high-frequency variability (tides, storms).
• Assessment of the physical exposure and vulnerability of ecological and socioeconomic systems to changing sea levels.

Main Results:

• Deep uncertainty in climate projections and ice sheet dynamics complicates adaptation planning.
• The interaction of slow trends and extreme events significantly influences sea-level rise impacts.
• Effective adaptation requires integrating diverse scientific disciplines and engaging stakeholders.

Conclusions:

• Addressing sea-level rise necessitates interdisciplinary approaches, combining natural sciences, social sciences, engineering, and decision science.
• Decision-first methodologies are crucial for focusing research on uncertainties most relevant to adaptation choices.
• A supportive political economy is essential for translating usable climate science into effective adaptation actions.