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Effects of trust-based decision making in disrupted supply chains
Rozhin Doroudi1, Pedro Sequeira2,3, Stacy Marsella3,4
1Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, Northeastern University, Boston, MA, United States of America.
Plos One
|February 19, 2020
Summary
Complex pharmaceutical supply chains can prolong drug shortages. Disruptions erode trust, leading to overreactions and unpredictable demand. This study models how agent behavior impacts supply chain resilience.
Area of Science:
- Operations Research
- Computational Social Science
- Supply Chain Management
Background:
- The United States faces persistent, severe medication shortages.
- Complex supply chain networks with competing entities contribute to these shortages.
- Disruptions negatively impact trust and demand forecasting.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model pharmaceutical supply chains using artificial decision-makers.
- To explore how trust and Theory-of-Mind influence supply chain dynamics.
- To understand the impact of disruptions on supply chain resilience.
Main Methods:
- Multiagent simulations with boundedly rational agents.
- Agents possess Theory-of-Mind to assess trustworthiness.
- Agents' beliefs about their own trustworthiness influence behavior.
Main Results:
- Local disruptions can cause cascading global consequences.
- Trust-sensitive buyers may be disadvantaged during shortages due to supplier preferences.
- Disruption timing and scale interact with buyer sensitivity, affecting overall performance.
Conclusions:
- Supply chain trust dynamics are critical for mitigating drug shortages.
- Agent-based modeling offers insights into complex supply chain behaviors.
- Understanding these interactions can improve pharmaceutical supply chain operations.
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