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Extinction risk of a metapopulation under bistable local dynamics
1Racah Institute of Physics, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Jerusalem 91904, Israel.
Physical Review. E
|February 20, 2020
Summary
Population migration significantly impacts extinction risk. Slow migration increases risk, while fast migration synchrony minimizes it, with a critical rate maximizing extinction risk.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Population Dynamics
- Theoretical Biology
Background:
- Fragmented populations face unique extinction risks.
- Patch dynamics with bistability present complex viability challenges.
- Inter-patch migration is a key factor in metapopulation survival.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the influence of migration on the extinction risk of fragmented populations.
- To identify migration rates that increase or decrease population viability.
- To find critical migration thresholds and early-warning signals for population collapse.
Main Methods:
- Mathematical modeling of metapopulation dynamics with deterministic bistability.
- Analysis of migration's effect on global extinction risk.
- Confirmation using the weighted ensemble method.
- Application of theoretical framework to gene regulatory networks.
Main Results:
- Slow migration increases extinction risk compared to isolated populations.
- Fast migration synchrony minimizes extinction risk.
- A critical migration rate was identified that maximizes extinction risk.
- An early-warning signal for approaching this critical state was discovered.
Conclusions:
- Migration dynamics critically influence metapopulation extinction risk.
- Understanding migration thresholds is vital for conservation.
- The theoretical framework is applicable to diverse systems, including gene regulatory networks.
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