Input-output system identification of a thermoacoustic oscillator near a Hopf bifurcation using only fixed-point data

We present a framework for performing input-output system identification near a Hopf bifurcation using data from only the fixed-point branch, prior to the Hopf point itself. The framework models the system with a van der Pol-type equation perturbed by additive noise, and identifies the system parameters via the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation. We demonstrate the framework on a prototypical thermoacoustic oscillator (a flame-driven Rijke tube) undergoing a supercritical Hopf bifurcation. We find that the framework can accurately predict the properties of the Hopf bifurcation and the limit cycle beyond it. This study constitutes an experimental demonstration of system identification on a reacting flow using only prebifurcation data, opening up pathways to the development of early warning indicators for nonlinear dynamical systems near a Hopf bifurcation.