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Group sequential comparison of positive predictive value curves for correlated biomarker data
Xuan Ye1, Larry L Tang2,3, Xiaochen Zhu4
1Center for Devices and Radiological Health, Food and Drug Administration, Silver Spring, MD.
This study introduces a new group sequential test to compare the predictive accuracy of two diagnostic tests. The method is effective for paired designs and maintains error rates in simulations.
Area of Science:
- Biostatistics
- Medical Diagnostics
- Clinical Trials
Background:
- Evaluating diagnostic tests often involves assessing predictive accuracy, commonly using positive predictive value (PPV) curves.
- While single PPV curves have been studied, comparing the accuracy of two tests is crucial in later development stages.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose a group sequential test for comparing PPV curves in paired designs.
- To develop a statistical procedure for comparing the predictive accuracy of two diagnostic tests applied to the same subjects.
Main Methods:
- Derivation of asymptotic properties for sequential differences of correlated empirical PPV curves.
- Development of a group sequential test procedure based on these asymptotic properties.
- Utilizing asymptotic results for optimal sample size determination.
Main Results:
- The proposed group sequential test maintains the nominal type I error rate in finite sample simulations.
- Asymptotic properties were derived for correlated PPV curves under case-control sampling.
- The methodology provides a framework for sample size calculations.
Conclusions:
- The developed group sequential test offers a robust method for comparing the predictive accuracy of paired diagnostic tests.
- This approach is valuable for optimizing sample sizes and ensuring statistical validity in diagnostic test comparisons.
- The method is illustrated with hypothetical lung cancer and general cancer diagnostic trials.
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