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Estimation of the adolescent pregnancy rate in Thailand 2008-2013: an application of capture-recapture method
Bunyarit Sukrat1, Chusak Okascharoen2, Sasivimol Rattanasiri1
1Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand.
Background:
Adolescent pregnancy is an important health and social issue that affects both individual and social well-being. However, deriving a national estimate is challenging in a country with multiple incomplete national databases especially the abortion statistics. The objective of this study was to estimate the adolescent pregnancy rates in Thailand using capture-recapture method.
Methods:
An application of capture-recapture method was conducted using two cross-sectional databases (i.e., the national birth registration and the Ministry of Public Health standard health databases) and one hospital-based data source from medical record reviews. A 3-sources capture-recapture with log-linear model was applied to estimate adolescent pregnancy rates.
Results:
A total number of 741,084, 290,922 and 25,478 records were respectively identified from the birth registrations, standard health databases and hospital-based survey data during 2008 to 2013. The estimated adolescent pregnancy rates /1000 adolescent women (95% confidence intervals (CI)) ranged from 56.3 (49.4, 66.9) to 70.3 (60.3, 76.6). The estimated rates were about 12-31% higher than adolescent birth rates reported by the Thailand Public Health Statistics.
Conclusions:
With the capture-recapture method, more accurate adolescent pregnancy rates were estimated. This method should be able to apply to any setting with similar context.
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