Evidence and impact of map error on land use and land cover dynamics in Ashi River watershed using intensity analysis

Previously, applications of intensity analysis (IA) on land use and land cover change (LULCC) studies have focused on deviations from uniform intensity (UI) and failed to quantify the reasons behind these deviations. This study presents the application of IA with hypothetical errors that could explain non-uniform LULCC in the context of IA at four-time points. LULCC in the Ashi watershed was examined using Landsat images from 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2014 showing the classes: Urban, water, agriculture, close canopy, open canopy and other vegetation. Matrices were created to statistically examine LULCC using IA. The results reveal that the seeming LULCC intensities are not uniform with respect to the interval, category and transition levels of IA. Error analysis indicates that, hypothetical errors in 13%, 19% and 11.2% of the 2000, 2010 and 2014 maps respectively could account for all differences between the observed gain intensities and the UI; while errors in 12%, 21%, and 11% of the 1990, 2000 and 2010 maps respectively could account for all differences between the observed loss intensities and the UI. A hypothetical error in 0.6% and 1.6% of the 1990 map; 1.5% and 4% of the 2000 map; 1.2% and 2.1% of the 2010 map could explain divergences from uniform transitions given URB gain and AGR gain during 1990-2000, 2000-2010 and 2010-2014 respectively. Evidence for a specific deviation from the relevant hypothesized UI is either strong or weak depending on the size of these errors. We recommend that users of IA concept consider assessing their map errors, since limited ground information on past time point data exist. These errors will indicate strength of evidence for deviations and reveals patterns that increase researcher's insight on LULCC processes.