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Published on: July 18, 2014
Newly Developed Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological Classification: First Predictive Validity
Fouke Ombelet1, Eva Goossens1,2,3, Alexander Van De Bruaene4,5
1KU Leuven Department of Public Health and Primary Care KU Leuven-University of Leuven 3000-B Leuven Belgium.
Insights
The Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological classification better predicts 15-year mortality than anatomy alone. Combining anatomy with physiology improves risk stratification for adults with congenital heart disease.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Adult Congenital Heart Disease
Background:
- Traditional risk stratification for adults with congenital heart disease (ACHD) relies on defect complexity.
- The 2018 AHA/ACC guidelines introduced a new classification combining anatomy and physiology.
- This study evaluates the predictive capacity of this new classification for long-term mortality.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the 15-year mortality prediction of the ACHD Anatomic and Physiological classification.
- To compare its performance against anatomic complexity alone and other models.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from 629 ACHD patients from a previous study.
- Collected physiological state data to apply the ACHD Anatomic and Physiological classification.
- Employed Cox proportional hazards regression and Harrell's concordance statistics for analysis.
Main Results:
- The ACHD Anatomic and Physiological classification showed a concordance index of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.63-0.78).
- Anatomic complexity alone had a concordance index of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.60-0.74).
- The combination of anatomic complexity and the Congenital Heart Disease Functional Index yielded the highest concordance index (0.79; 95% CI, 0.73-0.84).
Conclusions:
- The ACHD Anatomic and Physiological classification demonstrates empirical support for predicting 15-year cardiac mortality.
- Incorporating physiological status alongside anatomic complexity enhances risk stratification accuracy in ACHD patients.
- This approach offers improved prognostic insights for managing adults with congenital heart disease.
Abstract:
Background Risk stratification for adults with congenital heart disease is usually based on the anatomic complexity of the patients' defect. The 2018 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology guidelines for the management of adults with congenital heart disease proposed a new classification scheme, combining anatomic complexity and current physiological stage of the patient. We aimed to investigate the capacity of the Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological classification to predict 15-year mortality. Methods and Results Data on 5 classification systems were collected for 629 patients at the outpatient clinic for a previous study. After 15 years, data on mortality were obtained through medical record review. For this assessment, we additionally collected information on physiological state to determine the Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological classification. Harrell's concordance statistics index, obtained through a univariate Cox proportional hazards regression, was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.63-0.78) for the Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological classification. Harrell's concordance statistics index of the congenital heart disease anatomic component only was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.60-0.74). The highest Harrell's concordance statistics index was obtained for the anatomic complexity in combination with the Congenital Heart Disease Functional Index (0.79; 95% CI, 0.73-0.84). Conclusions This first investigation of the Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological classification system provides empirical support for adding the physiological component to the anatomic complexity in the prediction of 15-year cardiac mortality.
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