Newly Developed Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological Classification: First Predictive Validity

Fouke Ombelet1, Eva Goossens1,2,3, Alexander Van De Bruaene4,5

  • 1KU Leuven Department of Public Health and Primary Care KU Leuven-University of Leuven 3000-B Leuven Belgium.

Insights

The Adult Congenital Heart Disease Anatomic and Physiological classification better predicts 15-year mortality than anatomy alone. Combining anatomy with physiology improves risk stratification for adults with congenital heart disease.

Area of Science:

  • Cardiology
  • Adult Congenital Heart Disease

Background:

  • Traditional risk stratification for adults with congenital heart disease (ACHD) relies on defect complexity.
  • The 2018 AHA/ACC guidelines introduced a new classification combining anatomy and physiology.
  • This study evaluates the predictive capacity of this new classification for long-term mortality.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the 15-year mortality prediction of the ACHD Anatomic and Physiological classification.
  • To compare its performance against anatomic complexity alone and other models.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized data from 629 ACHD patients from a previous study.
  • Collected physiological state data to apply the ACHD Anatomic and Physiological classification.
  • Employed Cox proportional hazards regression and Harrell's concordance statistics for analysis.

Main Results:

  • The ACHD Anatomic and Physiological classification showed a concordance index of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.63-0.78).
  • Anatomic complexity alone had a concordance index of 0.67 (95% CI, 0.60-0.74).
  • The combination of anatomic complexity and the Congenital Heart Disease Functional Index yielded the highest concordance index (0.79; 95% CI, 0.73-0.84).

Conclusions:

  • The ACHD Anatomic and Physiological classification demonstrates empirical support for predicting 15-year cardiac mortality.
  • Incorporating physiological status alongside anatomic complexity enhances risk stratification accuracy in ACHD patients.
  • This approach offers improved prognostic insights for managing adults with congenital heart disease.

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