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Mountain pine beetle outbreak duration and pine mortality depend on direct control effort.

Mélodie Kunegel-Lion¹, Mark A Lewis²

¹Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, CW 405 Biological Sciences Bldg, Edmonton, AB T6G 2E9, Canada.

Journal of Environmental Management

|February 25, 2020

Summary

Direct control methods can significantly reduce bark beetle infestations over time. Sustained efforts are crucial, with moderate control (60%) needed for long-term population reduction and higher rates (69-83%) for outbreak suppression.

Keywords:

Direct control Insect epidemics Pest management Population modelling Simulations

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Area of Science:

Forestry
Ecology
Pest Management

Background:

Bark beetle outbreaks cause significant tree mortality, with debated efficacy of control methods.
Existing models lack spatial variability and environmental impact on beetle life cycles.

Purpose of the Study:

To simulate bark beetle outbreak dynamics under varying control efforts.
To explore the impact of control on outbreak suppression and tree mortality using natural variability.

Main Methods:

Developed a semi-empirical predictive model for infested trees based on ecological and environmental variables.
Coupled the predictive model with a simulation model for infestation dynamics.
Utilized data from a monitored, controlled bark beetle infestation.

Main Results:

Even minimal, sustained control efforts can substantially decrease infested trees over years.
A 60% control rate is necessary for long-term bark beetle population reduction.
Outbreak suppression within 13 years requires 69%-83% control, influenced by external beetle influx.

Conclusions:

Sustained, moderate bark beetle control is effective in mitigating infestations and tree mortality.
Environmental factors and spatial variability are critical for accurate outbreak modeling.
High control rates are essential for rapid and complete outbreak suppression.