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Firearm laws and illegal firearm flow between US states.

Erin G Andrade1, Mark H Hoofnagle, Elinore Kaufman

  • 1From the Department of Surgery (E.G.A., M.H.H.), Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, Missouri; Department of Surgery (E.K., M.J.S.), University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Northwestern Institute for Complex Systems, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern University, Evanston, Illinois (A.R.P.); Department of Epidemiology (C.N.M.), Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York; and Department of Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine (C.N.M.), Monash University, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.

The Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery
|February 27, 2020
PubMed
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Firearm laws impact gun trafficking. Weaker state firearm laws correlate with more crime gun transfers to states with stricter regulations, indicating a flow from less regulated areas.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Criminology
  • Public Health Policy

Background:

  • Significant variation exists in state firearm legislation across the United States.
  • Previous research suggests a correlation between robust state firearm laws and reduced firearm-related fatalities.
  • Hypothesized that firearms would move from states with less stringent laws to those with stricter laws, influenced by proximity and population density.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between state firearm legislation and the flow of crime guns.
  • To determine if firearm transfers are influenced by the strength of laws in origin and destination states.
  • To analyze the impact of proximity, population, and border status on interstate firearm trafficking.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized crime gun trace data from the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) for 2015-2017.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Compared trace data with firearm legislation composition in 2015 across the contiguous 48 states.
  • Employed Exponential Random Graph Models (ERGMs) to identify predictors of traced firearm transfers, controlling for network structure, population, income, distance, and shared borders.

    • Main Results:

    • Weaker firearm laws in origin states were associated with increased traced firearm transfers (IRR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.83-0.93).
    • Stronger firearm laws in destination states were associated with increased traced firearm transfers (IRR, 1.10; 95% CI, 1.06-1.15).
    • Larger origin and destination populations, shorter distances, and shared borders significantly predicted higher firearm transfers.

    Conclusions:

    • State firearm legislation significantly influences interstate gun trafficking patterns.
    • States with stricter firearm laws are disproportionately affected by crime guns originating from states with weaker regulations.
    • Policy implications suggest that interstate variations in firearm laws contribute to differential gun trafficking risks.