Related Experiment Video
Updated: Dec 27, 2025
An Obstructive Chronic Pancreatitis Model Established Through Electrocoagulation
Published on: October 31, 2025
Natural course of chronic pancreatitis and predictors of its progression
Samagra Agarwal1, Sanchit Sharma1, Deepak Gunjan1
1Department of Gastroenterology and Human Nutrition, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, New Delhi, 110029, India.
Background:
The natural course of chronic pancreatitis(CP) and its complications has been inadequately explored. We aimed to describe the natural history and factors affecting the progression of alcoholic(ACP), idiopathic juvenile(IJCP) and idiopathic senile(ISCP) variants of CP.
Methods:
This study was a retrospective analysis from a prospectively maintained database of patients with CP following up at a tertiary care centre from 1998 to 2019. Cumulative rates of pain resolution, diabetes, steatorrhea, pseudocysts and pancreatic cancer were computed using Kaplan-Meier analysis, and the factors affecting their incidence were identified on multivariable-adjusted Cox-proportional-hazards model.
Results:
A total of 1415 patients were included, with 540(38.1%) ACP, 668(47.2%) IJCP and 207(14.6%) ISCP with a median follow-up of 3.5 years(Inter-quartile range: 1.5-7.5 years). Diabetes occurred at 11.5, 28 and 5.8 years(p < 0.001) while steatorrhea occurred at 16, 24 and 18 years(p = 0.004) after onset for ACP, IJCP and ISCP respectively. Local complications including pseudocysts occurred predominantly in ACP(p < 0.001). Ten-year risk of pancreatic cancer was 0.9%, 0.2% and 5.2% in ACP, IJCP and ISCP, respectively(p < 0.001). Pain resolution occurred more frequently in patients with older age of onset[Multivariate Hazard Ratio(HR):1.7(95%CI:1.4-2.0; p < 0.001)], non-smokers[HR:0.51(95%CI:0.34-0.78); p = 0.002] and in non-calcific CP[HR:0.81(0.66-1.0); p = 0.047]. Occurrence of steatorrhea[HR:1.3(1.03-1.7); p = 0.028] and diabetes[HR:2.7(2.2-3.4); p < 0.001] depended primarily on age at onset. Occurrence of pancreatic cancer depended on age at onset[HR:12.1(4.7-31.2); p < 0.001], smoking-history[HR:6.5(2.2-19.0); p < 0.001] and non-alcoholic etiology[HR:0.14(0.05-0.4); p < 0.001].
Conclusion:
ACP, IJCP and ISCP represent distinct entities with different natural course. Age at onset of CP plays a major prognostic role in all manifestations, with alcohol predominantly causing local inflammatory complications.
Related Concept Videos
01:24Chronic Pancreatitis I: Introduction
Pancreatitis is the inflammation of the pancreas, which occurs when the immune system becomes active and causes swelling, pain, and disruptions in organ function. Pancreatitis can manifest as either an acute or chronic condition.
Acute pancreatitis arises suddenly and lasts for a brief duration, while chronic pancreatitis is a long-term affliction...
01:29Chronic Pancreatitis II: Collaborative Care
Assessment:
01:27Acute Pancreatitis I: Introduction
Acute pancreatitis is characterized by rapid inflammation of the pancreas, often caused by factors like gallstone blockage or excessive alcohol consumption. Chronic pancreatitis, on the other hand, is a slow, progressive inflammation that may result from long-term alcohol abuse, obstructions in the pancreatic duct, or genetic factors.
The causes of acute pancreatitis include:
01:30Acute Pancreatitis II: Clinical Manifestations and Management
01:25Chronic Kidney Disease I: Introduction
02:07Tumor Progression
Colon cancer is one of the best-documented examples of tumor progression. Early mutation in the APC gene in colon cells causes a small growth on the colon wall called a polyp. With time, this polyp grows into a benign, pre-cancerous tumor. Further...