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Natural population variability may be masking the more-individuals hypothesis.

Grant L Vagle1,2, Christy M McCain1,3

  • 1Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, 80309, USA.

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|March 1, 2020
PubMed
Summary

Interannual population variability can mask the more-individuals hypothesis (MIH) relationship between species richness and productivity. Long-term ecological sampling (5+ years) is crucial for reliably detecting the true MIH, as short-term studies are often misleading.

Keywords:
climate richnessdetection probabilitylong-term studiesproductivity diversityspecies energystochasticity

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology
  • Biodiversity Science
  • Population Dynamics

Background:

  • Species richness and ecosystem productivity are globally correlated, but the underlying mechanisms remain debated.
  • The more-individuals hypothesis (MIH) suggests higher productivity supports more individuals, thus more species.
  • Existing empirical evidence for the MIH is mixed, prompting further investigation into potential confounding factors.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate if interannual population variability masks the true relationship proposed by the more-individuals hypothesis (MIH).
  • To assess the impact of varying sampling durations on the detection of the MIH relationship using simulation.

Main Methods:

  • Simulations were conducted with fixed linear relationships between productivity, species richness, and average abundance.
  • Population abundance was simulated with annual variability and sampled over durations of 1 to 40 years.
  • Linear regressions of species richness on sampled abundance were used to evaluate the detection of the MIH relationship.

Main Results:

  • High interannual population variability combined with short-term sampling (1-3 years) significantly reduced the ability to detect the simulated MIH relationship.
  • Nearly all current MIH studies employ sampling durations and face population variability levels that hinder accurate detection.
  • Long-term sampling (5+ years) substantially improved the detection of the underlying MIH relationship in simulations.

Conclusions:

  • Interannual population variability is a critical factor that can obscure the true relationship between productivity and species richness.
  • Current research practices in MIH studies, often relying on short-term data, may lead to erroneous conclusions.
  • Future research on the more-individuals hypothesis must incorporate long-term ecological monitoring to account for population dynamics and reliably test its validity.