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Science is not a signal detection problem.

Brent M Wilson1, Christine R Harris2, John T Wixted1

  • 1Department of Psychology, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92093 b6wilson@ucsd.edu jwixted@ucsd.edu.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|March 5, 2020
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The replication crisis may stem from viewing science as binary. Continuous effect sizes, not dichotomous ones, are key. Direct replications, not conceptual ones, are essential for scientific self-correction.

Keywords:
null hypothesis significance testingreplication crisissignal detection theory

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Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Reproducibility in Science
  • Scientific Methodology

Background:

  • The current scientific landscape faces a perceived replication crisis, often framed through the lens of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST).
  • NHST treats scientific findings as a binary outcome (significant or not significant), which may misinterpret the nature of effect sizes.
  • This binary approach can lead to misunderstandings about the reliability and reproducibility of research findings.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To re-evaluate the conceptualization of effect sizes in scientific research, moving beyond a binary interpretation.
  • To propose a framework for understanding the role of original research and replication in scientific progress.
  • To advocate for specific methodologies, such as direct replication, as a robust mechanism for self-correction in science.

Main Methods:

  • Conceptual analysis of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and its application to effect size interpretation.
  • Distinguishing between dichotomous (null vs. alternative) and continuous distributions of effect sizes.
  • Evaluating the role and limitations of original research, conceptual replications, and direct replications in the scientific process.

Main Results:

  • Effect sizes are best understood as continuous random draws, not binary outcomes.
  • Published findings with P < 0.05 often represent true effects with inflated magnitudes due to selection bias.
  • Replication efforts showing smaller effect sizes are expected due to regression to the mean and do not necessarily indicate false positives.

Conclusions:

  • Original science acts as a screening process, using NHST as a practical tool to identify potentially interesting effects.
  • Replication science, particularly large-N direct replications, should focus on precise effect size estimation irrespective of statistical significance.
  • Direct replications are crucial for scientific self-correction, while conceptual replications serve a different, theory-validation purpose.