Evidence for subcritical rupture of injection-induced earthquakes

Seismicity induced by geo-engineering operations may be hazardous for people, infrastructure and the environment. The crucial information for assessing induced seismic hazards and related risks is knowledge of the time-dependent strength of rocks and the deformation due to fluid injection. Our studies of seismic and injection data from a geothermal field indicate that pressurized injections lead to rock fracturing at stress levels below the rock toughness, i.e., subcritical fracture growth. We provide a relation between the rate of this subcritical fracture growth and the injection rate. Based on this relation, we estimate the maximum subcritical magnitude. We hypothesize that subcritical fracture growth may be controlled by the amount of stress asymmetry, i.e., the relative values of the principal stresses. We discuss the conditions under which the subcritical fracturing regime can transform to a critical state and critical rupture may occur. We present the possibility of using these results in the operational reservoir to manage seismic hazards.