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Cross-Validation of Generic Risk Assessment Tools for Animal Disease Incursion Based on a Case Study for African
Clazien J de Vos1, Rachel A Taylor2, Robin R L Simons2
1Department of Bacteriology and Epidemiology, Wageningen Bioveterinary Research (WBVR), Wageningen University & Research, Lelystad, Netherlands.
Frontiers in Veterinary Science
|March 6, 2020
Summary
Generic risk assessment tools show consistent conclusions for African swine fever (ASF) incursion risk across different models and scenarios. Cross-validation enhances the credibility of these tools for disease management.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary epidemiology
- Infectious disease risk assessment
- Animal health policy
Background:
- Generic risk assessment (RA) tools are increasingly available for assessing infectious animal disease incursion risks.
- These tools, though developed for various purposes, can address similar risk questions.
- Cross-validation of these tools is essential for understanding their utility and comparability.
Purpose of the Study:
- To cross-validate seven generic RA tools by assessing the incursion risk of African swine fever (ASF) to the Netherlands and Finland.
- To evaluate tool performance under different scenarios, including a historical situation and hypothetical outbreaks in Germany.
- To determine if diverse RA tools yield comparable conclusions for risk management decisions.
Main Methods:
- Seven generic RA tools, ranging from qualitative to stochastic spatial models, were applied.
- Tools were parameterized using consistent global databases for disease occurrence and animal trade.
- Relative risks were calculated for common pathways (live animal trade, animal products, wild boar movements) and compared across tools and scenarios.
Main Results:
- All tools indicated a higher ASF incursion risk to the Netherlands than Finland via live animal trade in 2017.
- Risk via wild boar movements was similar or higher for Finland compared to the Netherlands; animal product pathways were inconclusive.
- Hypothetical ASF outbreaks in Germany increased assessed risk to the Netherlands but not Finland across all tools.
Conclusions:
- Despite variations in output parameters and units, generic RA tools produced similar conclusions regarding ASF incursion risk.
- Cross-validation demonstrated that diverse RA tools can provide consistent evidence for risk managers.
- The study supports the credibility and utility of generic RA tools for informing decisions on mitigating animal disease risks.
