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Evidence-based Knowledge Synthesis and Hypothesis Validation: Navigating Biomedical Knowledge Bases via Explainable AI and Agentic Systems
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Aleatory and epistemic uncertainties can completely derail medical research results

A Indrayan1

  • 1Department of Clinical Research, Max Healthcare Institute, Saket, New Delhi, India.

Journal of Postgraduate Medicine
|March 6, 2020
PubMed

Insights

Empirical medical research findings can be unreliable due to aleatory (intrinsic) and epistemic (extrinsic) uncertainties. Understanding and addressing these uncertainties is crucial for accurate conclusions and practical application of results.

Area of Science:

  • Medical Research
  • Biostatistics

Background:

  • Empirical medical research is susceptible to uncertainties that can impact findings.
  • Aleatory uncertainties arise from intrinsic factors (e.g., sampling), while epistemic uncertainties stem from external limitations (e.g., knowledge gaps).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To highlight the impact of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in medical research.
  • To demonstrate how these uncertainties can invalidate research findings.
  • To present methods for mitigating the influence of uncertainties.

Main Methods:

  • Conceptual analysis of uncertainty types in research.
  • Illustrative example showcasing the effect of uncertainties on findings.

Main Results:

  • Aleatory and epistemic uncertainties are pervasive in empirical medical research.
  • Even seemingly valid findings can be compromised by these uncertainties.
  • The study provides a case example of this phenomenon.

Conclusions:

  • Aleatory and epistemic uncertainties require careful consideration during research interpretation.
  • Acknowledging and addressing these uncertainties is vital before implementing research findings into practice.
  • Methods exist to reduce the impact of uncertainties on research outcomes.
Keywords:
Aleatory uncertaintiesepistemic uncertaintiesnon.reproducible findingswastage in research

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