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Discrimination of prediction models between cold-heat and deficiency-excess patterns.

Ayako Maeda-Minami¹, Tetsuhiro Yoshino², Kotoe Katayama³

¹Division of Pharmaceutical Care Sciences, Graduate School of Pharmacy, Keio University, 1-5-30 Shibakoen, Minato-ku, Tokyo 105-8512, Japan.

Complementary Therapies in Medicine

|March 10, 2020

Summary

This study identified key patient questionnaire items for predicting deficiency-excess and cold-heat patterns in Kampo medicine. Important factors include BMI, blood pressure, and sensations of cold or heat.

Keywords:

Decision support system International Classification of Diseases Machine learning Traditional medicine pattern

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Area of Science:

Integrative Medicine
Traditional Japanese Medicine (Kampo)
Predictive Modeling

Background:

Kampo diagnosis relies on pattern differentiation, including deficiency-excess and cold-heat patterns.
Accurate pattern diagnosis is crucial for effective Kampo treatment.
Identifying key diagnostic indicators can improve predictive models.

Purpose of the Study:

To extract essential patient questionnaire items for predicting deficiency-excess and cold-heat patterns.
To develop and validate random forest models considering pattern interactions.
To enhance diagnostic accuracy in Kampo medicine.

Main Methods:

A multi-center prospective observational study involving 6 Kampo clinics in Japan.
Utilized 153 variables, including demographics, vital signs, and 148 subjective symptoms.
Employed random forest algorithm with balanced training data for prediction models.

Main Results:

Body Mass Index (BMI) and blood pressure were key for deficiency-excess patterns.
Subjective reports of cold or heat sensations were crucial for cold-heat patterns.
The developed models showed comparable discriminant ratios to those ignoring pattern interactions.

Conclusions:

Revised prediction models for deficiency-excess and cold-heat patterns were developed using balanced data.
Identified key items align with the 11th International Classification of Diseases (ICD-11) definitions.
The findings support improved diagnostic criteria in Kampo medicine.