Phosphorus flow analysis in the maize based food-feed-energy systems in China

Phosphorus (P) is an essential and limiting nutrient for agricultural systems, where the demand for agricultural products such as food, feed, and bio-fuel are the major drivers of the intensification of agricultural production systems. Globally, maize is one of three main cereal crops, a main feedstock for animal production and a substrate for the production of bio-ethanol. This study investigated P flows through the multiple utilization systems of maize (as represented by the subsystems of food, feed and energy production) at a crop level of 2016 as reference year and made future predictions of P flows for the year 2030 based on different scenarios for food-feed-energy systems in China. For 2016, the subsystem of animal production resulted in the highest waste of P due to inappropriate manure management, but the subsystem of value-added products (Bio-fuel production, distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS), maize-oil) showed the lowest P use efficiency (39%). From the value-added subsystem, 17% of P from the process flow to the subsystem of animal production as DDGS, and 61% of P is wasted associated with wastewater and sludge. Future scenarios of structural adjustments in the maize consumption system predict that the supply of maize for animal feed will be threatened if the policy of the Biofuel National Promotion before 2020 is fully implemented in China, as current maize production will not meet the future demand of food, feed and energy simultaneously. The results emphasized the use of P waste resources and better sludge management from a systems perspective. This also implied the importance of exploring coordinated development and integrated strategies for sustainable P flow management in multiple utilization systems.