Assessing the vulnerability of water resources in the context of climate changes in a small forested watershed using...

The present study evaluates the applicability performance of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in small forested watersheds (less than 1000 km²). This open-source software is widely used in investigations focused on water availability and quality. Overall, SWAT model performance ranges between satisfactory to good. Normally, underestimates daily peak discharges. The limitations of the model are related to the accuracy of climate data used and to the time period used for validation. Watershed area, forest cover and streamflow spatial distribution have an important influence on modeling processes. Overall, from the analyzed studies, we observed for discharge a decreasing tendency, more pronounced towards the end of the 21st century (up to -54%). For surface runoff, was noticed the same decreasing tendency up to 41%. Regarding sediment yield, the results vary within very wide limits. These findings vary according to watershed location, scenarios adopted, and the eligible period of time.