Quantifying the Contribution to Uncertainty in Mortality Attributed to Household, Ambient, and Joint Exposure to...

While there have been substantial efforts to quantify the health burden of exposure to PM_2.5 from solid fuel use (SFU), the sensitivity of mortality estimates to uncertainties in input parameters has not been quantified. Moreover, previous studies separate mortality from household and ambient air pollution. In this study, we develop a new estimate of mortality attributable to SFU due to the joint exposure from household and ambient PM_2.5 pollution and perform a variance-based sensitivity analysis on mortality attributable to SFU. In the joint exposure calculation, we estimate 2.81 (95% confidence interval: 2.48-3.28) million premature deaths in 2015 attributed to PM_2.5 from SFU, which is 580,000 (18%) fewer deaths than would be calculated by summing separate household and ambient mortality calculations. Regarding the sources of uncertainties in these estimates, in China, India, and Latin America, we find that 53-56% of the uncertainty in mortality attributable to SFU is due to uncertainty in the percent of the population using solid fuels and 42-50% from the concentration-response function. In sub-Saharan Africa, baseline mortality rate (72%) and the concentration-response function (33%) dominate the uncertainty space. Conversely, the sum of the variance contributed by ambient and household PM_2.5 exposure ranges between 15 and 38% across all regions (the percentages do not sum to 100% as some uncertainty is shared between parameters). Our findings suggest that future studies should focus on more precise quantification of solid fuel use and the concentration-response relationship to PM_2.5, as well as mortality rates in Africa.