National Surgical Quality Improvement Program risk calculator validity in South Australian laryngectomy patients

Assessing an individual patient's post-operative risk profile prior to laryngectomy for cancer is difficult. The American College of Surgeons' National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (ACS-NSQIP) risk calculator was developed to better inform preoperative decision-making. The calculator uses patient-specific characteristics to estimate the risk of experiencing post-operative complications within 30 days of surgery. We investigated the ACS-NSQIP risk calculator's performance for Australian laryngectomy patients.

The ACS-NSQIP risk calculator was used to retrospectively calculate the 30-day post-operative predicted outcomes in patients who underwent laryngectomy for laryngeal, hypopharyngeal and thyroid cancers (with laryngeal involvement) in two institutions in South Australia. These data were compared against the actual mortality, morbidity, complications and length of stay (LOS) collected from a retrospective chart review.

A total of 144 patients underwent surgical intervention for malignancies with laryngeal involvement. The median LOS was 25 days (range 13-197) compared to the predicted LOS of 6.5 days (range 3.5-12.5). Overall mortality was 2.78% with post-operative complications occurring in 63% of patients. The most common complication was wound infection, occurring in 33% of patients. Hosmer-Lemeshow plots demonstrated good agreement between predicted and observed rates for complications.

The ACS-NSQIP risk calculator effectively predicted post-operative complication rates in South Australian laryngeal cancer patients undergoing laryngectomy. However, differences in predicted and actual LOS may limit the usefulness of the calculator's LOS predictions for Australian patients.