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Regionally-structured explanations behind area-level populism: An update to recent ecological analyses
Roger Beecham1, Nick Williams2, Alexis Comber1
1School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom.
Plos One
|March 13, 2020
Summary
Regional voting patterns in the UK and US reveal complex factors beyond a simple "left-behind" narrative. Educational attainment is key, with other variables like material disadvantage influencing votes differently across regions and political contexts.
Area of Science:
- Political Geography
- Quantitative Social Science
- Electoral Studies
Background:
- Significant geographic disparities were observed in the 2016 Brexit and Trump votes.
- Existing ecological analyses have explored area-level voting variations.
- There is a need to explore subnational contexts often excluded from analyses.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop modeling approaches for regionally-specific associations between voting outcomes and explanatory variables.
- To investigate the influence of educational attainment and material disadvantage on voting behavior.
- To compare and contrast the drivers of Brexit and Trump votes across different regions.
Main Methods:
- Generation of numerous regional models using penalized regression for variable selection and coefficient evaluation.
- Application of carefully designed visualizations to interpret over 100 model outputs within their spatial context.
- Analysis documented in an accompanying GitHub repository for transparency and replication.
Main Results:
- Educational attainment (degree-level) was the dominant explanatory variable across models.
- Material disadvantage influenced the Brexit vote more in historically industrial regions.
- The impact of material disadvantage on the Trump vote varied regionally, sometimes supporting and sometimes undermining the 'left-behind' hypothesis.
Conclusions:
- Voting behavior is influenced by a complex interplay of education, material disadvantage, and regional economic history.
- A nuanced, region-specific approach is crucial for understanding electoral patterns.
- The study highlights the importance of exploring subnational variations and employing robust, transparent methodologies in social science research.
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