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Dengue importation into Europe: A network connectivity-based approach
Donald Salami1, César Capinha2, Maria do Rosário Oliveira Martins1
1Global Health and Tropical Medicine, Instituto de Higiene e Medicina Tropical, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Lisboa, Lisbon, Portugal.
Plos One
|March 13, 2020
Summary
Global human mobility drives dengue spread. This study found that air travel patterns, source country factors like incidence and seasonality, and destination network position strongly predict dengue importation into Europe, explaining over 70% of variations.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Network Science
- Public Health
Background:
- Dengue virus (DENV) transmission globally is amplified by human mobility, posing significant public health challenges.
- Understanding dengue importation into non-endemic regions like Europe requires analyzing transmission pathways and influencing factors.
- Characterizing dengue importation patterns is crucial for developing effective bio-surveillance and control strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze dengue fever importation patterns into European countries using a network connectivity approach.
- To identify key factors, including air passenger traffic, seasonality, incidence, proximity, vulnerability, and wealth, that facilitate dengue importation.
- To investigate the role of a European country's position within the air transport network in its propensity to receive imported cases.
Main Methods:
- Development of seven connectivity indices to quantify factors influencing dengue transport and importation.
- Application of generalized linear mixed models (GLMMs) to assess the relationship between connectivity indices and dengue importation.
- Incorporation of network autocorrelation within GLMMs to analyze the impact of network position on importation propensity.
Main Results:
- Connectivity indices and air transport network dynamics were significant predictors of dengue importation in Europe, explaining over 70% of the variation.
- Higher transportation potential for dengue importation was observed from source countries with seasonal activity, high passenger traffic, high incidence rates, high epidemic vulnerability, and geographical proximity.
- A European country's position within the air transport network strongly predicted its likelihood of receiving imported dengue cases.
Conclusions:
- Dengue importation patterns into Europe are largely predictable by characterizing source country heterogeneities and air transport network topology.
- The findings provide a foundational framework for developing integrated predictive models for dengue bio-surveillance.
- Understanding these importation dynamics is essential for targeted public health interventions and preventing local transmission.
