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A simple high-resolution heat-stress forecast for Seoul, Korea: coupling climate information with an operational
Britta Jänicke1, Kyu Rang Kim2, Changbum Cho2
1Applied Meteorological Research Division, National Institute of Meteorological Sciences, 33, Seohobuk-ro, Seogwipo-si, Jeju-do, 63568, Republic of Korea. britta.jaenicke@posteo.net.
Abstract:
To provide a simple high-resolution heat-stress forecast for Seoul, Korea, we coupled a high-resolution climate simulation (25 m grid spacing) for an average heat day with the operational forecasting model (5 km grid spacing). Thereby, we accounted for the meso-scale weather conditions and local-scale air temperature induced by land cover and the urban heat island effect. Moreover, we estimated the impacts of heat events using heat-related mortality rate. Applying the simple high-resolution heat-stress forecast for July and August 2016, we detected a substantial spatial variability in maximum air temperature and heat-related mortality rate in Seoul. The evaluation of simulated maximum air temperature compared to observations revealed a small deviation (MB = 0.11 K, RMSD = 1.40 K). Despite the limitation of using average conditions, it was an efficient way to identify particularly affected areas, neighbourhoods, and districts for releasing more location-specific heat-stress warnings.
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