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In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
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[We should be prepared to smallpox re-emergence.]

S N Shchelkunov1, G A Shchelkunova1

  • 1State Research Center of Virology and Biotechnology VECTOR, Koltsovo, Novosibirsk region, 630559, Russia.

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Smallpox (variola virus) could reemerge due to waning immunity and evolving zoonotic orthopoxviruses. New diagnostics, vaccines, and therapies are crucial for preventing future outbreaks.

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chemotherapydiagnosticsevolutionorthopoxvirusesreviewsmallpox virusvaccine

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Area of Science:

  • Virology
  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Smallpox eradication in 1980 led to global cessation of vaccination, resulting in loss of collective immunity.
  • Increased incidence of zoonotic orthopoxvirus infections raises concerns about potential smallpox reemergence.
  • Historical and evolutionary analyses suggest variola virus (VARV) may have reemerged from zoonotic ancestors previously.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze 40 years of research post-smallpox eradication.
  • To assess the genomic organization and evolution of variola virus (VARV).
  • To evaluate the development of modern diagnostics, vaccines, and therapies for orthopoxviral infections.

Main Methods:

  • Review of investigations on VARV genomic organization and evolution.
  • Analysis of historical smallpox epidemic data and ancient civilization records.
  • Examination of evolutionary relationships among orthopoxviruses.

Main Results:

  • VARV may have repeatedly reemerged from zoonotic ancestors, disappearing due to small population sizes.
  • The last smallpox pandemic was contained in the 20th century through global collaborative efforts.
  • No fundamental biological barrier prevents the reemergence of smallpox or similar diseases.

Conclusions:

  • Continued evolution of zoonotic orthopoxviruses poses a risk for future human disease emergence.
  • Development of rapid, species-specific diagnostics for all human-pathogenic orthopoxviruses is essential.
  • New, safe prevention and therapy methods for orthopoxvirus infections are urgently needed.