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Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality

Nick Wilson, Amanda Kvalsvig, Lucy Telfar Barnard

    Emerging Infectious Diseases
    |March 14, 2020
    PubMed

    Insights

    The case-fatality risk for coronavirus disease varied globally, with lower estimates potentially reflecting the true risk. A range of 0.25% to 3.0% is considered for this infectious disease.

    Area of Science:

    • Epidemiology
    • Infectious Disease Research

    Background:

    • Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged as a significant global health threat.
    • Accurate estimation of case-fatality risk (CFR) is crucial for understanding disease impact and guiding public health responses.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To estimate the case-fatality risk of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in various geographical settings.
    • To provide a range for the potential true case-fatality risk based on available data.

    Main Methods:

    • Analysis of reported coronavirus disease cases and fatalities.
    • Calculation of case-fatality risk percentages for different regions, including China, specific provinces, and international locations.
    • Consideration of data from a cruise ship outbreak.

    Main Results:

    • Estimated case-fatality risk in China was 3.5%, and 0.8% excluding Hubei Province.
    • In 82 other countries/territories, the estimated risk was 4.2%.
    • A cruise ship outbreak showed a case-fatality risk of 0.6%.

    Conclusions:

    • Case-fatality risk estimates for coronavirus disease vary significantly by location.
    • Lower estimates may more accurately represent the true risk, with a suggested range of 0.25%-3.0%.

    Keywords:
    2019 novel coronavirus diseaseCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2case-fatality riskcoronavirusespandemicrespiratory diseasessevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2viruseszoonoses

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