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Case-Fatality Risk Estimates for COVID-19 Calculated by Using a Lag Time for Fatality
Emerging Infectious Diseases
|March 14, 2020
Summary
The case-fatality risk for coronavirus disease varied globally, with lower estimates potentially reflecting the true risk. A range of 0.25% to 3.0% is considered for this infectious disease.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Disease Research
Background:
- Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged as a significant global health threat.
- Accurate estimation of case-fatality risk (CFR) is crucial for understanding disease impact and guiding public health responses.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the case-fatality risk of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in various geographical settings.
- To provide a range for the potential true case-fatality risk based on available data.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of reported coronavirus disease cases and fatalities.
- Calculation of case-fatality risk percentages for different regions, including China, specific provinces, and international locations.
- Consideration of data from a cruise ship outbreak.
Main Results:
- Estimated case-fatality risk in China was 3.5%, and 0.8% excluding Hubei Province.
- In 82 other countries/territories, the estimated risk was 4.2%.
- A cruise ship outbreak showed a case-fatality risk of 0.6%.
Conclusions:
- Case-fatality risk estimates for coronavirus disease vary significantly by location.
- Lower estimates may more accurately represent the true risk, with a suggested range of 0.25%-3.0%.
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