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Noncooperative dynamics in election interference.

David Rushing Dewhurst1, Christopher M Danforth1, Peter Sheridan Dodds1

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Foreign powers interfere in elections through strategic interactions. Modeling this as a game, an "all-or-nothing" approach by one side triggers an interference arms race.

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Area of Science:

  • Political Science
  • Game Theory
  • Computational Social Science

Background:

  • Foreign election interference poses a significant threat to democratic societies.
  • Such interference involves complex strategic interactions between political and economic actors.
  • Understanding these dynamics is crucial for national security and electoral integrity.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop an analytical model of foreign power interference in domestic elections.
  • To investigate the strategic interactions between interfering and counter-interfering states.
  • To empirically test the model's predictions using data from the 2016 US presidential election.

Main Methods:

  • Constructed a continuous-time differential game model to represent strategic interactions.
  • Incorporated various payoff structures to analyze different competitive scenarios.
  • Estimated a Bayesian structural time-series model using election polls and Russian social media activity data.

Main Results:

  • An "all-or-nothing" stance by one player can escalate into an interference arms race.
  • The analytical model successfully captured temporal patterns in election dynamics and social media activity.
  • Empirical analysis provided insights into the Russian interference in the 2016 US election.

Conclusions:

  • Foreign election interference can be modeled as a strategic game with potentially escalating consequences.
  • The study highlights the importance of understanding game theory in analyzing geopolitical interference.
  • Further research is needed to refine the model and explore its limitations.