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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Dec 26, 2025

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Vaccine skepticism reflects basic cognitive differences in mortality-related event frequency estimation.

Mark LaCour1, Tyler Davis1

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|March 15, 2020
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Summary

Vaccine skepticism may stem from how individuals process event frequencies. Higher skepticism correlates with inaccurate estimations of vital statistics, particularly those involving negative outcomes.

Keywords:
Frequency processingMortalityVaccine skepticism

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Area of Science:

  • Psychology
  • Public Health
  • Behavioral Science

Background:

  • Vaccines are crucial for disease prevention but face public skepticism.
  • Misinterpreting the frequency of rare adverse events can distort perceived vaccine risks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the relationship between vaccine skepticism and accuracy in processing event frequencies.
  • To determine if skepticism is linked to how individuals estimate the occurrence of vital statistics.

Main Methods:

  • Two experiments were conducted with participants estimating frequencies of vital statistics.
  • Experiment 1 involved 158 participants; Experiment 2 involved 109 participants.
  • Statistical analysis examined correlations between skepticism levels and estimation accuracy.

Main Results:

  • Higher vaccine skepticism was associated with lower accuracy in estimating vital statistics frequencies.
  • Skeptical individuals tended to overestimate the frequency of rare, negative events.
  • This association was specific to mortality-related or negative affect events, not neutral or positive ones.

Conclusions:

  • Vaccine skepticism may be linked to fundamental differences in how individuals process information about negative or mortality-related events.
  • Cognitive biases in frequency estimation could contribute to public distrust in vaccines.
  • Understanding these cognitive underpinnings is vital for addressing vaccine hesitancy.