Conditional Survival in Heart Transplantation: An Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network Database Analysis

Survival after heart transplantation is typically reported only in terms of overall survival. Conditional survival may provide prognostic information for patients after surviving a given period. This study sought to provide an analysis of conditional survival in heart transplantation.

Data from 29,000 patients who underwent heart transplantation between 2002 and 2016 were analyzed from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network database, and 5-year conditional survival rates were calculated according to age, sex, race, renal function, and hepatic function at transplantation.

As time from transplantation increased from 0 to 5 years, the 5-year observed conditional survival changed from 74% to 82% for ages younger than 40 years, 79% to 82% for ages 40 to 49, 79% to 78% for ages 50 to 60, and 75% to 70% for ages older than 60 at transplantation. Conditional survival peaked at 1 and 2 years after transplantation for most subgroups. In recipients younger than 40 years, men had slightly higher conditional survival than women (absolute difference, 3%-4%). In recipients older than 60 years, women had slightly higher conditional survival (absolute difference, 1%-4%). Black recipients had lower survival than white and Hispanic recipients for nearly all time points. Recipients younger than 40 years with the worst renal (65% to 88%) and hepatic function (66% to 83%) at transplantation experienced the largest increase in conditional survival.

The conditional survival of patients who undergo heart transplantation changes substantially over time. The largest increases in conditional survival are in young patients with impaired renal and hepatic function. Conditional survival can provide more accurate prognostic information for heart recipients who survive a given period after transplantation.