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Early estimation of the case fatality rate of COVID-19 in mainland China: a data-driven analysis

Shu Yang1,2, Peihua Cao3, Peipei Du4

  • 1College of Medical Information Engineering, Chengdu University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Chengdu 611137, China.

Annals of Translational Medicine
|March 17, 2020
PubMed

Insights

Early COVID-19 case fatality rates (CFR) were estimated using statistical methods. Wuhan showed the highest CFR at 5.25%, while mainland China (excluding Hubei) had the lowest at 0.15%.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Diseases
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) caused a global pandemic starting in Wuhan, China.
  • Estimates for the case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 were lacking in the early stages.
  • Previous coronaviruses like SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV had significant CFRs.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To estimate the case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19 during the early phase of the outbreak.
  • To compare COVID-19 CFR with those of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.

Main Methods:

  • A data-driven statistical approach was employed.
  • Daily confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths were collected from January 10 to February 3, 2020.
  • Data was stratified into Wuhan, other Hubei cities, and other mainland China provinces, with linear regression applied to estimate CFR.

Main Results:

  • Estimated CFRs varied significantly by region.
  • Wuhan: 5.25% (95% CI: 4.98-5.51%).
  • Hubei (excluding Wuhan): 1.41% (95% CI: 1.38-1.45%).
  • Mainland China (excluding Hubei): 0.15% (95% CI: 0.12-0.18%).

Conclusions:

  • Early COVID-19 CFR estimates were lower than those of SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV.
  • Geographical variations in CFR were observed in the initial phase of the outbreak.
Abstract

Keywords:
2019 novel coronavirusCOVID-19case fatality rate (CFR)severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)

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