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Floods and rivers: a circular causality perspective.

G Sofia1, E I Nikolopoulos2

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Understanding flood changes requires considering river conveyance capacity alongside climate and landscape factors. This research proposes a new framework to analyze these interconnected drivers for improved flood risk prediction.

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Area of Science:

  • Hydrology
  • Geomorphology
  • Climate Science

Background:

  • Flood hazard prediction is crucial for adaptation strategies.
  • Increased global flooding is linked to atmospheric and landscape drivers.
  • River conveyance capacity variability is an underappreciated factor in flood changes.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a novel framework connecting flood changes to river conveyance variability.
  • To initiate a regional analysis for understanding flood-river causality.
  • To highlight the need for multidriver attribution in flood risk assessment.

Main Methods:

  • Regional analysis integrating flood changes with river conveyance, precipitation, flows, and sediment connectivity.
  • Investigating the nonlinear interactions within atmospheric, hydrologic, and geomorphological systems.
  • Developing a framework to decipher the circular causality between floods and rivers.

Main Results:

  • The study demonstrates how interacting atmospheric, hydrologic, and geomorphological factors act as a nonlinear filter.
  • Flood event frequency is fundamentally altered by these complex system dynamics.
  • River conveyance variability significantly influences flood hazard changes.

Conclusions:

  • Multidriver attribution studies are essential for accurate future flood risk estimation.
  • Incorporating climate, water, sediment connectivity, and river conveyance is vital.
  • A comprehensive understanding of interacting drivers is needed for effective flood adaptation.