Modeling buffer capacity and pH in acid and acidified foods

Standard ionic equilibria equations may be used for calculating pH of weak acid and base solutions. These calculations are difficult or impossible to solve analytically for foods that include many unknown buffering components, making pH prediction in these systems impractical. We combined buffer capacity (BC) models with a pH prediction algorithm to allow pH prediction in complex food matrices from BC data. Numerical models were developed using Matlab software to estimate the pH and buffering components for mixtures of weak acid and base solutions. The pH model was validated with laboratory solutions of acetic or citric acids with ammonia, in combinations with varying salts using Latin hypercube designs. Linear regressions of observed versus predicted pH values based on the concentration and pK values of the solution components resulted in estimated slopes between 0.96 and 1.01 with and without added salts. BC models were generated from titration curves for 0.6 M acetic acid or 12.4 mM citric acid resulting in acid concentration and pK estimates. Predicted pH values from these estimates were within 0.11 pH units of the measured pH. Acetic acid concentration measurements based on the model were within 6% accuracy compared to high-performance liquid chromatography measurements for concentrations less than 400 mM, although they were underestimated above that. The models may have application for use in determining the BC of food ingredients with unknown buffering components. Predicting pH changes for food ingredients using these models may be useful for regulatory purposes with acid or acidified foods and for product development. PRACTICAL APPLICATION: Buffer capacity models may benefit regulatory agencies and manufacturers of acid and acidified foods to determine pH stability (below pH 4.6) and how low-acid food ingredients may affect the safety of these foods. Predicting pH for solutions with known or unknown buffering components was based on titration data and models that use only monoprotic weak acids and bases. These models may be useful for product development and food safety by estimating pH and buffering capacity.