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Climate projections for glacier change modelling over the Himalayas
Martin W Jury1, Thomas Mendlik1, Satyanarayana Tani1,2
1Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC) University of Graz Graz Austria.
International Journal of Climatology : a Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society
|March 24, 2020
Summary
Himalayan glacier melt is influenced by air temperature and precipitation. Climate models project rising temperatures and increased summer monsoon precipitation, but a decline in solid precipitation overall.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Glaciology
- Hydrology
Background:
- Himalayan glaciers are crucial for regional freshwater supplies.
- Glacier dynamics are sensitive to air temperature and precipitation patterns.
- Understanding climate change impacts on glaciers is vital for water resource management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the projected climate change impacts on Himalayan glaciers.
- To analyze the influence of air temperature and precipitation on glacier mass balance.
- To quantify future changes in positive degree days (PDD) and snow/ice accumulation (SAC).
Main Methods:
- Utilized a model ensemble of 36 CMIP5 general circulation models (GCMs) and 13 regional climate models (RCMs).
- Downscaled models based on their ability to reproduce key circulation patterns (Indian summer monsoon, western disturbances) and elevation-dependent trends.
- Applied bias correction (scale distribution mapping) to temperature and precipitation data before computing PDD and SAC.
Main Results:
- Projected increase in positive degree days (PDD), particularly in summer and at lower altitudes.
- Significant rise in 2-m air temperature (TAS), with highest increases at higher altitudes during December-April.
- Robust increase in Indian summer monsoon precipitation, but increased uncertainty and heterogeneity in winter precipitation. A general decline in solid precipitation is projected.
Conclusions:
- Climate change is projected to significantly alter temperature and precipitation regimes in the Himalayas.
- These changes will likely impact glacier mass balance and freshwater availability.
- A robust decline in solid precipitation, except in parts of the Indus catchment, is a key finding affecting snow and ice accumulation.
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