Yield and economic losses in maize caused by ambient ozone in the North China Plain (2014-2017)

Maize is the second most important crop per harvested area in the world. The North China Plain (NCP) is a highly populated and relevant agricultural region in China, experiencing some of the highest ozone (O₃) concentrations worldwide. It produces ~24% of the total maize production of China in years 2014-2017. For these years, we used observational O₃ data in combination with geostatistic methods to estimate county-level production and economic losses due to O₃ in the NCP. AOT40 (accumulated ozone exposure over an hourly threshold of 40 ppb) values during the maize growing season (90 days before maturity) progressively increased in the four consecutive years: 13.7 ppm h, 15.4 ppm h, 16.9 ppm h and 22.7 ppm h. Mean relative yield losses were 8.2% in 2014, 9.2% in 2015, 10.4% in 2016 and 13.4% in 2017. These yield losses, derived from exposure-response functions, resulted in crop production losses of 530.3 × 10⁴ t, 617.8 × 10⁴ t, 713.8 × 10⁴ t, and 953.4 × 10⁴ t, as well as economic losses of 2343 million USD, 2672 million USD, 1887 million USD, and 2404 million USD from 2014 to 2017. The NCP is a key area in China for monitoring the effectiveness of the clean air action policies aiming at reducing emissions of air pollutants. Despite these measures, O₃ concentrations have increased in NCP, and reduction of this pollutant are challenging. We suggest an increase in the number of rural air quality stations for better characterizing O₃ trends in cropland areas, as well as the application of different mitigation measures. They may involve more stringent air quality regulations and changes in crops, breeding tolerant cultivars and a crop management taking into account O₃ pollution.