An application of the Markov process for quantitative prediction of labor progress

To quantitatively predict the progress of labor, we devised a mathematical model suitable for the Markov process. Included were 625 primiparas who went into spontaneous labor between 37 and 41 weeks of gestation with a cephalic presentation. When applying the Markov process, the sequence of labor was divided into eight categories from 4 cm cervical dilatation to delivery of the baby. Based on all data collected, a transition matrix was calculated, using a microcomputer system, in which the value in each element showed the percent of probability of progression in labor from one given state to another over a 30-minute period. This matrix was found to be available for evaluating the course of labor in clinical practise with a good predictive value and therefore the Markov process could be confirmed to be actually applicable as an analytical model.