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Managing Wildlife Faced with Pathogen Risks Involving Multi-Stable Outcomes.

Richard D Horan¹, David Finnoff², Kevin Berry³

¹1Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI USA.

Environmental & Resource Economics

|March 28, 2020

Summary

This summary is machine-generated.

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Proactive wildlife disease management can influence outcomes by considering pathogen introduction and establishment risks. This approach accounts for system instability and economic factors, leading to better investment decisions.

Area of Science:

Ecology
Conservation Biology
Bioeconomics

Background:

Wildlife disease management models often overlook proactive strategies, treating pathogen invasion as unpredictable.
Existing bioeconomic models typically assume initial conditions are fixed, neglecting the impact of early management decisions.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate how proactive management influences wildlife disease system dynamics and outcomes.
To extend existing models to incorporate endogenous initial conditions and system multi-stability.
To analyze the role of uncertainty in pathogen introduction and establishment on management strategies.

Main Methods:

Extension of the Reed and Heras Poisson "collapse" model to include endogenous initial conditions and multi-stability.
Modeling of pathogen introduction and establishment as uncertain processes.

Keywords:

Endogenous risk Optimal control Pathogen invasion

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Analysis of anthropogenic investments in prevention and native population management for natural protection.

Examination of economic non-convexities arising from system multi-stability and uncertainty.

Main Results:

System multi-stability and uncertainty processes can lead to economic non-convexities in ex ante optimization.
Multiple candidate solutions may arise for proactive management optimization problems.
The effectiveness of natural protection strategies significantly impacts the allocation of anthropogenic investments.

Conclusions:

Ex ante management is crucial for influencing ex post conditions and optimizing outcomes in infected wildlife systems.
Understanding system multi-stability and uncertainty is key to effective disease management.
Natural protection mechanisms play a vital role in guiding investment in disease prevention and control.