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Francesco Pinotti1, Fakhteh Ghanbarnejad2,3,4, Philipp Hövel2,5

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Theoretical Ecology
  • Mathematical Biology

Background:

  • Pathogen interactions are complex, involving simultaneous cooperation and competition.
  • Existing models often study cooperation or competition in isolation, failing to capture concurrent dynamics.
  • Understanding these mixed interactions is crucial for diseases like HIV and tuberculosis.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the epidemiological impact of two cooperating pathogens, one with competing strains.
  • To investigate how strain transmissibility and cooperation levels influence disease dynamics.
  • To explore the role of population structure in pathogen strain coexistence.

Main Methods:

  • Developed a susceptible-infected-susceptible model with two cooperating pathogens, one having two strains.
  • Employed mean-field stability analysis and stochastic simulations on networks.
  • Examined both well-mixed and spatially structured populations.

Main Results:

  • Observed a complex phase diagram with non-trivial conditions for strain dominance.
  • Identified non-monotonic boundaries and bistability in strain competition.
  • Demonstrated that cooperative pathogens can facilitate strain coexistence by creating ecological niches in structured populations.

Conclusions:

  • Concurrent cooperation and competition between pathogen strains create complex epidemiological patterns.
  • Population structure plays a key role in enabling strain coexistence.
  • These findings offer insights into the spread of infectious diseases with public health significance.