[Verification of accuracy of warfarin stable dose prediction models in Shandong population]

To compare the accuracy of five warfarin-dosing algorithms and warfarin stable dose model (2.5 mg/day) for Shandong population.

One hundred and twenty five patients who achieved stable warfarin dose were enrolled. Clinical and genetic data were used to evaluate the value of each algorithm by calculating the percentage of patients whose predicted warfarin dose was within 20% of the actual stable therapeutic dose and mean absolute error (MAE).

The frequency of patients with CYP2C9*1/*1, CYP2C9*1/*3 and CYP2C9*1/*2 genotype was 92.00%, 7.20%, 0.80%, respectively. That of VKORC1-1639 AA, AG and GG genotype was 82.40%, 15.20%, 2.40%, respectively. CYP4F2*1/*1, *1/*3, *3/*3 genotype was 50.40%, 39.20%, 10.40%, respectively. With the same genotypes for other loci, patients who carried at least one VKORC1-16398G mutant allele had increased warfarin stable daily dose compared with VKORC1-1639AA. Compared with CYP4F2*1/*1, those carrying at least one CYP4F2*3 mutant allele had warfarin stable daily dose increased by 5.9%-13.00%. The percentage of ideal prediction calculated from IWPC model (59.20%), Huang model (57.60%) and Ohno model (52.80%) were higher than others. The MAE were 0.35 (95%CI: 0.11-0.49), 0.15 (95%CI: 0.10-0.32), 0.39 (95%CI: 0.12-0.51), respectively.

The polymorphisms of CYP2C9, VKORC1 and CYP4F2 genes can influence the stable dose of warfarin in Shandong population. IWPC algorithm is suitable for guiding the use of warfarin in this population.