A global ensemble of ocean wave climate projections from CMIP5-driven models

Area of Science:

• Oceanography
• Climate Science
• Coastal Engineering

Background:

• The Coordinated Ocean Wave Climate Project (COWCLIP) phase 2 has produced COWCLIP2.0, the first coordinated multivariate ensemble of 21st-century global wind-wave climate projections.
• This dataset includes general and extreme statistics for significant wave height, mean wave period, and mean wave direction.

Purpose of the Study:

• To provide a comprehensive dataset of global wind-wave climate projections for the 21st century.
• To support coastal hazard and vulnerability assessments, climate adaptation studies, and offshore/coastal engineering applications.

Main Methods:

• Generated a 155-member ensemble from ten CMIP5-based wave climate studies using various downscaling methods, climate models, and emissions scenarios.
• Computed statistics for significant wave height (Hs), mean wave period (Tm), and mean wave direction (θm) for historical (1979-2004) and future (2081-2100) periods at multiple frequency resolutions.
• Ensured data consistency and quality, adhering to CMIP5 standards for syntax, directory structure, and metadata.

Main Results:

• The COWCLIP2.0 dataset provides a robust ensemble of global wave climate projections.
• Model skill was technically compared against 26 years of global satellite measurements of significant wave height at global and regional scales.

Conclusions:

• COWCLIP2.0 is a valuable resource for understanding future ocean wave climate changes.
• The dataset will significantly aid in planning for coastal resilience and adaptation strategies worldwide.