Community science validates climate suitability projections from ecological niche modeling.

Area of Science:

• Ecology and Conservation Biology
• Climate Change Biology
• Avian Ecology

Background:

• Climate change is a significant threat to bird species, necessitating accurate predictions of distribution shifts.
• Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) are widely used to project future species distributions but require in situ validation.
• Assumptions of ENMs are often unverified, limiting their reliability for conservation decision-making.

Purpose of the Study:

• To validate near-term climate suitability projections for bluebirds and nuthatches using dynamic occupancy models.
• To assess the relationship between projected climate suitability and actual species occupancy and colonization dynamics.
• To evaluate the utility of community science data for ground-truthing ENM projections.

Main Methods:

• Utilized large-scale community science data to develop dynamic occupancy models for bluebirds and nuthatches across the United States.
• Estimated occupancy, colonization, and extinction dynamics in relation to projected climate suitability for the 2020s.
• Employed Gibbs variable selection and included Bird Conservation Region strata effects to analyze species-climate relationships and spatial occupancy patterns.

Main Results:

• Found strong positive relationships between initial occupancy, colonization, and projected 2020 climate suitability across species and seasons.
• Demonstrated independent validation of ENM projections over a large geographic scale using empirical data.
• Identified that occupancy probabilities varied significantly across regions, with higher probabilities in core areas and lower in peripheral areas.

Conclusions:

• Community science observations provide crucial ground-truthing for ENM projections, enhancing their reliability for conservation.
• Findings support the use of ENM projections for understanding climate-induced changes in species occupancy dynamics.
• This study highlights the value of citizen science in refining ecological models and understanding species' responses to climate change.