PBCLM: A top-down causal modeling framework for soil standards and global sustainable agriculture

To help countries worldwide regulate agricultural soil standards for organic contaminants, this study developed the pastoral-based chemical lifecycle management (PBCLM) modeling framework, which comprehensively models the bottom-up causation of the chemicals' lifecycle at each level of the cattle industry and delivers top-down regulatory strategies. The lifecycle models for a total of 308 hydrophobic organic contaminants were constructed. The results indicated that the octanol-water partitioning coefficient (log K_OW) values had the greater impact on the unit-legal-limit-based concentrations for contaminants at the producer level (i.e., grass) or higher. In addition, the analysis of the weather variables indicated that pastoral farming in warmer and drier places might lead to the bioaccumulation of more contaminants. By comparing the reference legal limits that were derived by the PBCLM, current soil standards might not be effective in protecting human health or harmonizing downstream food regulations. The PBCLM can help regulatory agencies better promulgate soil regulations to ensure sustainable agriculture.