External Validation of an MRI-Derived Radiomics Model to Predict Biochemical Recurrence after Surgery for High-Risk...

Adjuvant radiotherapy after prostatectomy was recently challenged by early salvage radiotherapy, which highlighted the need for biomarkers to improve risk stratification. Therefore, we developed an MRI ADC map-derived radiomics model to predict biochemical recurrence (BCR) and BCR-free survival (bRFS) after surgery. Our goal in this work was to externally validate this radiomics-based prediction model.

A total of 195 patients with a high recurrence risk of prostate cancer (pT3-4 and/or R1 and/or Gleason's score > 7) were retrospectively included in two institutions. Patients with postoperative PSA (Prostate Specific Antigen) > 0.04 ng/mL or lymph node involvement were excluded. Radiomics features were extracted from T2 and ADC delineated tumors. A total of 107 patients from Institution 1 were used to retrain the previously published model. The retrained model was then applied to 88 patients from Institution 2 for external validation. BCR predictions were evaluated using AUC (Area Under the Curve), accuracy, and bRFS using Kaplan-Meier curves.

With a median follow-up of 46.3 months, 52/195 patients experienced BCR. In the retraining cohort, the clinical prediction model (combining the number of risk factors and postoperative PSA) demonstrated moderate predictive power (accuracy of 63%). The radiomics model (ADC-based SZE_GLSZM) predicted BCR with an accuracy of 78% and allowed for significant stratification of patients for bRFS (p < 0.0001). In Institution 2, this radiomics model remained predictive of BCR (accuracy of 0.76%) contrary to the clinical model (accuracy of 0.56%).

The recently developed MRI ADC map-based radiomics model was validated in terms of its predictive accuracy of BCR and bRFS after prostatectomy in an external cohort.