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Nomogram for Predicting the Pathological Tumor Response from Pre-treatment Clinical Characteristics in Rectal Cancer
Byung-Hee Kang1, Changhoon Song2, Sung-Bum Kang3
1Department of Radiation Oncology, Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Background/Aim:
To develop a nomogram for predicting the pathological tumor response to preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT) for locally advanced rectal cancer based on pre-treatment magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and blood test characteristics.
Patients And Methods:
This retrospective study included 514 patients who underwent MRI and received preoperative CRT followed by surgical resection. Pathological tumor response was assessed as good [Dworak tumor regression grade (TRG) 3 or 4] or poor (TRG 0-2). A nomogram for good response was developed using stepwise logistic regression analysis.
Results:
A nomogram based on longitudinal tumor diameter, extramural tumor invasion depth, carcinoembryonic antigen and hemoglobin levels, age, and interval between CRT and surgery gave an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for a good response of 0.721 (95%CI=0.676-0.768).
Conclusion:
Our nomogram based on pre-treatment clinical characteristics can predict the tumor response to CRT, which may help identify patients who can benefit most from CRT.
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