Fat tails and black swans: Exact results for multiplicative processes with resets

D H Zanette1, S Manrubia2

  • 1Centro Atómico Bariloche and Instituto Balseiro, Comisión Nacional de Energía Atómica and Universidad Nacional de Cuyo, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Av. E. Bustillo 9500, R8402AGP San Carlos de Bariloche, Río Negro, Argentina.

Related Concept Videos

Regression Toward the Mean01:52

Regression Toward the Mean

Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when...
6.8K
Wald-Wolfowitz Runs Test I01:17

Wald-Wolfowitz Runs Test I

The Wald-Wolfowitz test, also known as the runs test, is a nonparametric statistical test used to assess the randomness of a sequence of two different types of elements (e.g., positive/negative values, successes/failures). It examines whether the order of the elements in a sequence is random or if there is a pattern or trend present. This nonparametric test applies to any ordered data despite the population and sample data distribution, even if a higher sample size is available.
The test works...
881
Wald-Wolfowitz Runs Test II01:17

Wald-Wolfowitz Runs Test II

The Wald-Wolfowitz runs test, commonly referred to as the runs test, is a nonparametric test used to assess the randomness of ordered data. The test evaluates the number of runs, which are consecutive sequences of similar elements within the data. If the number of runs is significantly higher or lower than expected, the data is considered non-random, indicating a detectable pattern or structure.
For binary data, runs are identified using symbols such as + and −, or equivalently, 1s and 0s. In...
477
Reversible and Irreversible Processes01:14

Reversible and Irreversible Processes

The thermodynamic processes can be classified into reversible and irreversible processes. The processes that can be restored to their initial state are called reversible processes. It is only possible if the process is in quasi-static equilibrium, i.e., it takes place in infinitesimally small steps, and the system remains at equilibrium However, these are ideal processes and do not occur naturally. An ideal system undergoing a reversible process is always in thermodynamic equilibrium within...
5.4K
Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error00:59

Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error

An experiment often consists of more than a single step. In this case, measurements at each step give rise to uncertainty. Because the measurements occur in successive steps, the uncertainty in one step necessarily contributes to that in the subsequent step. As we perform statistical analysis on these types of experiments, we must learn to account for the propagation of uncertainty from one step to the next. The propagation of uncertainty depends on the type of arithmetic operation performed on...
1.6K
Parametric Survival Analysis: Weibull and Exponential Methods01:14

Parametric Survival Analysis: Weibull and Exponential Methods

Parametric survival analysis models survival data by assuming a specific probability distribution for the time until an event occurs. The Weibull and exponential distributions are two of the most commonly used methods in this context, due to their versatility and relatively straightforward application.
Weibull Distribution
The Weibull distribution is a flexible model used in parametric survival analysis. It can handle both increasing and decreasing hazard rates, depending on its shape parameter...
925