Appropriate Range of Median Urinary Iodine Concentration in 8- to 10-Year-Old Children Based on Generalized Additive...

The appropriate range of median urinary iodine concentration (MUI) in children has always been controversial. To prevent the occurrence of a goiter epidemic in Shanghai, we explored the appropriate range of MUI by integrating multiple monitoring results. This study summarized and analyzed the monitoring data from 1997, 1999, 2011, 2014, and 2017 of children living in Shanghai. In each monitoring year, the probability-proportional-to-size sampling technique was used to select 30 sampling units. In each sampling unit, one primary school was randomly selected. From each selected school, 40 children 8- to 10-year-old were randomly recruited to measure thyroid volume (Tvol) and their household salt iodine intake. In 1997, 1999, 2011, 2014, and 2017, MUI of 8- to 10-year-old children was 228, 214, 182, 171, and 183 μg/L, and median Tvol (MTvol) was 2.9, 1.2, 1.0, 1.8, and 2.8 mL, respectively. There was a linear correlation between goiter rate and MTvol (r = 0.95, p = 0.014; 100 × goiter rate = 1.314 × MTvol -1.287). Generalized additive model (GAM) was used to predict MTvol as follows, MTvol = 0.60689 + 0.00302 MUI +0.999928 s (MUI) -0.05172 mean salt iodized concentrations (MSIs) +0.03481 × 100 × iodized salt coverage rate +0.00000969 per capita disposable income +0.271422 s (per capita disposable income) -0.38772 × monitoring year gap. The results revealed that the average relative error between predicted and actual value was 15.2%. GAM results showed that at 27-277 μg/L MUI, the goiter rate was <5%. Iodine status is appropriate in Shanghai. Under the existing economy and MSI, the optimal range of MUI should be 70-277 μg/L in 8- to 10-year-old children living in Shanghai.