Day-case thyroid lobectomy parameters at a tertiary referral head and neck centre: a sensitivity and cost analysis

Day-case thyroid surgery has been endorsed by the American Thyroid Association and the British Association of Day Surgery. Despite the many benefits of day surgery, day-case thyroid surgery is not widely practiced. We describe the use of sensitivity analysis modelling and cost analysis in determining and refining the patient cohort that safely meet the threshold for a new day-case thyroid lobectomy service at a tertiary referral head and neck centre.

All cases of first-time thyroid lobectomy were identified between 2015 and Q2 2019. Patients suitable for day-case thyroid lobectomy were identified retrospectively, according to the following criteria: Age < 65 years, ASA grade < 3, BMI < 30 kg/m² and distance from tertiary unit < / = 30 min. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken, manipulating each parameter in turn to assess the effect on eligibility and associated cost-savings.

259 Thyroid lobectomy procedures were performed, 173 of these met inclusion criteria. Sensitivity analysis revealed that after increasing all day-case parameters by four increments, eligibility increased from 47 (27%) to 112 patients (64.7%), with only one outpatient to inpatient conversion. Multivariate logistical regression analysis found that age was the only variable to increase the risk of adverse outcomes (OR = 1.10, p < 0.05). Using data from the NHS reference costs, if 60% of all thyroid lobectomies nationally were undertaken as day-case, this would have amounted to savings of £26.3 m over five years.

Through sensitivity analysis, we determined that we could safely offer day-case thyroid lobectomy to 64.7% of our patient cohort.